Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 0.018769 0.021288 0.024027 0.027227 0.030865 0.034875 0.039632
2025-05-11 0.014519 0.017906 0.021913 0.027007 0.033322 0.040904 0.050720
2025-05-18 0.012270 0.016016 0.020708 0.027026 0.035334 0.045913 0.060457
2025-05-25 0.010530 0.014395 0.019465 0.026622 0.036499 0.049698 0.068763
2025-06-01 0.009477 0.013485 0.018960 0.027012 0.038603 0.054760 0.079131
2025-06-08 0.008457 0.012469 0.018150 0.026816 0.039768 0.058518 0.087918
2025-06-15 0.007884 0.012011 0.018051 0.027580 0.042326 0.064429 0.100359
2025-06-22 0.006970 0.010937 0.016920 0.026651 0.042192 0.066238 0.106630
2025-06-29 0.006327 0.010207 0.016225 0.026299 0.042873 0.069294 0.115072
2025-07-06 0.005653 0.009358 0.015258 0.025400 0.042555 0.070678 0.120837
2025-07-13 0.005426 0.009212 0.015397 0.026311 0.045281 0.077242 0.135899
2025-07-20 0.005172 0.008993 0.015388 0.026958 0.047594 0.083283 0.150585
2025-07-27 0.004949 0.008815 0.015445 0.027745 0.050265 0.090253 0.167767
2025-08-03 0.004577 0.008343 0.014951 0.027509 0.051081 0.094007 0.179441
2025-08-10 0.004284 0.007982 0.014620 0.027529 0.052351 0.098671 0.193246
2025-08-17 0.003959 0.007533 0.014087 0.027117 0.052755 0.101725 0.204184
2025-08-24 0.003772 0.007328 0.013986 0.027515 0.054746 0.107972 0.222066
2025-08-31 0.003527 0.006988 0.013600 0.027315 0.055526 0.111894 0.235549
2025-09-07 0.003417 0.006904 0.013701 0.028093 0.058347 0.120141 0.258880
2025-09-14 0.003125 0.006429 0.012989 0.027146 0.057503 0.120781 0.265919
2025-09-21 0.002921 0.006117 0.012578 0.026788 0.057864 0.123953 0.278786
2025-09-28 0.002679 0.005706 0.011932 0.025871 0.056934 0.124274 0.285261
2025-10-05 0.002629 0.005700 0.012130 0.026800 0.060141 0.133886 0.313977